A new Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll released on Sunday gave former Vice President Joe Biden a 14-point lead over President Trump, suggesting that “the debate – is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing.”
Another factor having a ‘material effect’ is the poll’s egregious oversampling of Democrats – with 45% of those asked identifying as either “Strong Democrat” , “Not very strong Democrat” , “Independent/lean Democrat” – vs. the 36% of those asked identifying as the same degrees of Republican.
Wow! How did this happen? I’ll explain:
The poll sampled 35% DEM, 27% REP, 38% IND. So a DEM+8 vs REP.
The last poll sampled DEM+3.
So they changed the weighting by 5 points and now report “OMG BIDEN IS UP ANOTHER 6 POINTS FROM THE LAST POLL!”
It’s a fraudulent industry. https://t.co/cbfc0cYK88
— Raheem Kassam (@RaheemKassam) October 4, 2020
13% of those asked are “Strictly Independent.”
Last month, the same poll ‘only’ oversampled Democrats by +3, which The Journal uses to illustrate Biden’s lead ‘jumping’ from an 8-point advantage last month.