Concluding Remarks: The Need for an Investigation into the Warning System
More than a quarter of million people have died in one of the World’s most devastating natural disasters.
The overriding issues pertaining to the warning / information systems, cannot drowned or brushed aside. They must be the object of a full-fledged inquiry, preferably by an independent body.
This report has outlined a number of broad issues pertaining to the global information network. The latter requires detailed examination in the context of full-fledged inquiry.
What agencies in the US, the European Union, in the Indian Ocean countries and internationally were informed? The failures are by no means limited to the US seismic network.
When were they informed? What type of data did they have? Some of that data has not been released.
Why did the information not reach the people on time in the countries affected by the tsunami?
What factors, administrative, scientific or otherwise, contributed to preventing the information from being transmitted?
We are not dealing strictly with seismic data. Satellite images of the devastation in Northern Sumatra were also available. Other types of data were also transmitted in near real time by satellite.
In addition to the seismic data, the Vienna based IMS/CTBTO monitors and compiles hydroacoustic, infrasound and radionuclide data, which is transmitted in near real time from its stations in the Indian Ocean (including three stations in the Chagos islands archipelago).
Moreover, satellite reconnaissance technology, not to mention the use of simulation models, have the ability to assess and monitor the speed of the tsunami in near real time.
The approximate speed of the seismic wave was known and confirmed. According to the news reports, the tsunami was moving at a speed of roughly 20 km a minute (on average) in relation to Sri Lanka.
The seismic information was known to the NEIC and other seismic centers within less than four minutes after the quake.
The tsunami hit the Indonesian coast within 5 minutes, in other words 10 minutes before the release of the first TPWC bulletin. Banda Aceh was hit by the tsunami 11 minutes after the earthquake, approximately 3 minutes before the release of the TPWC bulletin.
In other words, it was possible to predict in a very precise way, at what time the seismic wave would hit the coastlines of Thailand, Sri Lanka, India, The Maldives and Somalia. Had this information been transmitted in a consistent fashion, there would have been ample time to evacuate people from the coastal areas of Sri Lanka, India, not to mention the East coast of Africa.
There are no Ocean sensors in the Indian Ocean. But this was not the cause of the failures and omissions in the warning system.
The tsunami became active immediately following the earthquake. No warnings were sent out following the seismic readings despite the fact that the tsunami had already hit the Indonesian coast.
This is the key issue.
The Tsunami was active, and this was known, corroborated not only by seismic information but also by satellite images and other data, roughly 30 minutes prior to hitting Thailand.
Annex
Map: Animation Simulating the propagation of the Tsunami in the Indian Ocean .
Approximate Timeline
(based on News Reports published in the immediate wake of the earthquake)
Sunday 26 December 2004 (GMT)
00.58.50 GMT: a 9.0 magnitude earthquake occurs on the seafloor near Aceh in northern Indonesia.
01.02.20 GMT: IDA seismic stations in the Indian Ocean transmit data to the IRIS/IDA network and the National Earthquake Information Center World Data Center for Seismology, Denver(3 min 30 sec. after the earthquake)
Shortly after 01.00 GMT: Earthquake hits several cities in Indonesia, creates panic in urban areas in peninsular Malaysia. The news of the earthquake is reported immediately.
01.04 GMT the tsunami hits the coast of Northern Sumatra ( roughly 5 min after the earthquake)
01.10 minutes after the earthquake it devastated Banda, capital of Aceh. (11 minutes after the earthquake)
01.14 GMT: The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii emits its first bulletin, confirming that there is no tsunami warning in effect.
01.3O GMT: Phuket and Coast of Thailand: The tidal wave hits the coastline after 8.30 am, 01.30 GMT
02:16 GMT (one hour seventeen minutes after the earthquake). SIO staff received notice via automatic email from the NEIC of the initial earthquake detection.
02.30 GMT: Eastern Coast of Sri Lanka is hit. The seismic wave hits the coastal regions close to the capital Colombo, according to report at 8.30 am local time, 02.30 GMT (approximately, an hour and a half after the earthquake)
02:57 PM: One hour fifty-eight minutes after the quake, SIO staff receive request from Sri Lanka “asking whether there had been any earthquakes in or near Sri Lanka.” (By that time the tsunami had already devastated the coast of Sri Lanka).
02.45 GMT: India’s Eastern Coastline. The tsunami hits India’s eastern coast as of 6:15 a.m.(02:45 GMT)
0.3.43 GMT: NOAA log indicates that US Pacific Command, including the Diego Garcia military base, were “given a specific warning about the tsunami some two and three quarter hours after the earthquake” (The Guardian, 7 Jan 2005). Subsequent reports suggest that the Military received the seismic data in near real time shortly after the earthquake.
04.00 GMT: Male, Maldives: From about 9:00 am (04.00 GMT), three hours after the earthquake, the capital, Male, and other parts of the country were flooded by the tsunami. (more than three hours after the earthquake)
08.00 -11.00 GMT (according to news dispatches): East Coast of Africa is hit. Seven to ten hours after the earthquake (see animated map).
Table 1
FOUR MONITORING STATIONS IN THE BIOT CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO
1. IDA/ IRIS DGAR (Diego Garcia), Seismometer on the site of the US Air Force’s Ground-Based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance (GEODSS) station at Diego Garcia. -7.3 S 72.4 E
2. IMS/ CTBTO BIOT Chagos Hydroacoustic Station (HA08) at -7.3 S 72.4 E located at the Diego Garcia US military base
3. IMS/ CTBTO BIOT Chagos Radionuclide Station (RN66) at -7.0 S 72.0 E located at the Diego Garcia US military base.
4. IMS/ CTBTO BIOT Chagos Infrasound Station (IS52) at -5.0 S 72.0 E located near Peros Banhos Island
The IMS stations transmit data in real time to the CTBTO International Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna, The IDa station transmits data in real to IRIS and NEIC
Functions of CTBTO International Monitoring System
- The primary and auxiliary seismic stations monitor seismic signals propagating through the earth from natural events (earthquakes) and man-made events (mining blasts and explosions);
- The radionuclide stations pick up traces of radioactivity following a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere or leaked from an underground nuclear test;
- The hydroacoustic stations detect explosions on the ocean surface and under the water; and
- The infrasound stations provide evidence of a possible atmospheric explosion by detecting sound pressure waves in the atmosphere.
Source: FAS
Table 2 IDA Project Links to Seismographic Readings
- Location map
- Initial source parameters
- 3 components [closest IDA station, COCO, clipped]
- 3 components [closest IDA station, COCO, non-clipped]
- 3 components [next closest IDA station, PALK, non-clipped]
- 3 components [3rd closest IDA station, DGAR, non-clipped]
- All IDA stations, vertical components, filtered
- All IDA stations, vertical components, low pass fliter
- Plot showing the accelerations observed at IRIS/IDA stations COCO and PALK superimposed on a figure depicting expected ground accelerations for varying distances and sizes of earthquake.
Source: IDA Project. Magnitude 9.0 quake off the west coast of Northern Sumatra (click to access the relevant data)
http://ida.ucsd.edu/SpecialEvents/2004/361/a/index.shtml#parameters
Source: https://www.globalresearch.ca/indian-ocean-tsunami-why-did-the-information-not-get-out/207
